How Long Should I Stay Online Waiting for a Private Show?

Private shows have been disproportionately valuable for me. They’ve taken up only about 10% of my broadcast time, but generated more than half of my earnings.

That made me wonder:

If I haven’t gotten a private yet, when should I give up?

When my privates actually happened

Across my 16 sessions so far in 2026, 5 eventually converted to a private.

My first private started:

29, 39, 63, 114, or 132 minutes into the stream.

The median was 63 minutes.

What surprised me was how spread out they were. Two happened within 40 minutes. But two others didn't happen until almost two hours or more into the stream.

What I'm doing with this (for now)

I originally wanted the data to give me a simple rule like stay online for 60 minutes and then quit.

It didn't.

My current takeaway is almost the opposite:

Not getting a private early doesn't necessarily mean one isn't coming.

For now, I'm going to be more cautious about ending a stream solely because I haven't converted anyone yet—especially because privates make up such a large share of my income.

But this is still a tiny dataset: 16 sessions and only 5 private conversions. I’ll need to collect more data to see what happens.

Next experiment: collect more sessions and see whether the probability of a future private eventually starts dropping enough to identify a real point of diminishing returns.